How Signals verdicts are made

The beta publishes one rule set per market rather than the consensus of the whole library described below. Indian stocks, Indian indexes and US stocks use Firefly Breakout Weekly; mutual funds use Firefly Fund Trend Weekly. Both were chosen in the October 2026 review: the stock rule set had the smallest drawdowns of its family, the fund rule set the widest coverage.

A page is in the buy zone when the strategy holds an open Buy signal at the latest close, and in the avoid zone when its sell trigger is active — Firefly reads a sell trigger as “don't enter”, never as a short. Otherwise it is wait. Past signals, hit rates and outcomes are simulated by applying the rules to historical prices since October 2024, count Buy signals only, and are shown before costs and slippage.

Before publishing, signals are checked: where a price series jumped (unadjusted splits, bonus issues, bad ticks) the instrument shows signal paused until its data is fixed; US stocks under $5 get no Buy signals; the India VIX is excluded. Instruments with no trades yet say so and wait. Pages show the last price on record with its date; 52-week ranges arrive with the end-of-day price feed. Crypto and MCX commodities are not in the beta yet; their pages say when they open.

Every strategy in Firefly is a fixed rule: an entry condition, a target, a stop, and in most cases a trend-reversal exit that closes the position early if momentum turns. The rules fall into families — Valuation, Quality, Momentum, Dividend, Growth, Technical and Macro for equities (1,248 long-term and 812 medium-term rules on NSE stocks; 1,105 and 740 on US stocks), and Momentum, Technical, On-chain, Network growth and Macro for crypto (620 and 410). None of them is edited by hand once live; a strategy either fires on today's data or it doesn't.

Firefly treats each strategy as an agent in a swarm. Agents that have been right recently — on this instrument, in this regime — gain weight; agents that have been wrong lose it. The swarm also reads crowd behaviour: order flow, breadth, how many rules across unrelated families are converging on the same name, and how the market reacted the last times that convergence appeared. The strategies the swarm promotes are the ones Firefly trades with; they are the same ones published here, with no human choosing among them.

The verdict on a page is the swarm's current vote. An instrument is in the buy zone when more than 62% of strategies with an active signal are bullish, in the avoid zone below 40%, and wait in between. Long-term uses 1–5 year rules; medium-term uses 3–12 month rules.

Free pages show the auto-selected strategies' read on every instrument we track: the bullish/bearish split, which families lead, where the bullish rules are set to exit, and what happened the last times the instrument entered the buy zone. Use it to validate a trade you are already considering — if 700 independent rules disagree with you, it is worth knowing why. It is not a recommendation: we do not know your position, horizon or risk, and we do not publish price targets.

Strategy histories are computed on daily closes — NSE from 2010, US from 2005, crypto from 2017 — before costs and slippage, with delisted names retained to avoid survivorship bias. Indian pages update after the NSE close, US pages after the New York close (about 02:30 IST), crypto pages every hour. Execution, portfolio construction and the swarm's live weights belong to Fintrens' Firefly products, not to this site.